What Makes This American Government Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Government closures have become a recurring feature of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable because of political dynamics and bad blood among the two parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse continue to fall short, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because each side – as well as the nation's leader – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways that make things feel different currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure early this year. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The President and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further reductions in government employment implemented during the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, which is headed by the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the halting of government financial support for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Chicago.
3. There's little trust on either side
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Conversely, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, saying that a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
Conversely, experts indicate should the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.